民间给微策略（MSTR）计算 NAV 用的方式是这样的:

NAV=资产−负债 \text{NAV} = \text{资产} − \text{负债}

如果把 MSTR 当作一个 BTC ETF 来看，使用这种计算方式比较合适。但 MSTR 官方的口径不同：

The multiple of the BTC Reserve, as of the specified date, calculated as the Company’s enterprise value (as we define it) divided by the BTC Reserve.
The Company’s enterprise value is calculated as the sum of (A) the total market value of all outstanding MSTR common stock, including class A common stock and class B common stock, calculated by multiplying the number of outstanding shares of class A common stock and class B common stock by the closing price of the class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on the applicable date, (B) the aggregate principal amount of the Company’s indebtedness and (C) the aggregate notional value of the Company’s outstanding perpetual preferred stock, less (D) the Company’s most recently reported cash balance value.

Although mNAV incorporates the label “NAV,” it is not equivalent to “net asset value” or “NAV” or any similar metric in the traditional financial context.
Additionally, it is not a measure of the amount by which the enterprise value exceeds net asset value in the traditional financial sense of those terms.

Investors should rely on the financial statements and other disclosures contained in the Company’s SEC filings. This metric is merely a supplement, not a substitute, to the financial statements and other disclosures contained in the Company’s SEC filings. It should be used only by sophisticated investors who understand their limited purpose and many limitations.

所以根据 MSTR 的解读，mNAV 这名字里面虽然有个 "NAV"，但它不是 NAV，它是一个倍数，无单位，正确的算法是：

mNAV=EVBTC 价值 \text{mNAV} = \frac{\text{EV}}{\text{BTC 价值}}

其中，EV 是企业价值：

EV=Market Cap+Total Debt+Preferred Equity−Cash \text{EV} = \text{Market Cap} + \text{Total Debt} + \text{Preferred Equity} - \text{Cash}

于是，

  • mNAV ≈ 1：企业价值 ≈ BTC 持仓价值。
  • mNAV > 1：市场给了核心业务正的估值。
  • mNAV < 1：折价或净现金较多。

数据与方法

我的目的是用 MSTR 的方式来计算 mNav，而不是民间的做法。于是有：

market_cap = mstr_close * shares
ev         = market_cap + debt + preferred_equity - cash
btc_value  = btc_holdings * btc_close
mnav       = ev / btc_value
           = (market_cap + debt + preferred_equity - cash) / (btc_holdings * btc_close)

其中，mstr_close, shares, debt, preferred_equity, cash 可以直接从 Yahoo finance 拿到（ debt, preferred_equity, cash 要从季报里读，然后向前充填）； btc_holdings 和 btc_close 可以从从MSTR 官网 拿到

然后即可算出 mNAV。这个过程我让 AI 帮我 vibe coding 完成了。

在 TradingView 里画图

由于 mNAV 可以直接预计算，所以不需要用 pine script 计算了，直接把上一步计算得到的结果塞到 pine script 里就行。

可以直接在这里使用我发布的脚本

#mNAV #BTC #微策略