A few days ago, I met an old friend who has been researching the concept of karmic retribution lately.
He said: "Isn't it strange? I've seen bad people doing all sorts of evil deeds yet living carefree lives. They say there are gods watching over us, so why don't they punish these wrongdoers?"
In our world, there are two types of people: those who go long and those who go short.
Good people often go long on this world, while bad people mostly short it: this analogy might be a bit far-fetched, but please allow me to explain.
Interestingly, Bitcoin supporters often say "Buy Bitcoin, Short the World." But this phrase actually misunderstands the direction - buying Bitcoin is precisely going long on this world, betting that humans will create a better financial system. Any true innovation is going long on human civilization. So what you think is shorting is actually going long.
Of course, society's rules - that is, morality - match the social structure, manifesting both temporally and spatially. During the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms period, Chinese people could accept cannibalism; in the modern Middle East, women can accept men not treating them as human beings. Just as the market is composed of every investor, just as you claim to be a hodler, but the anxious positions in your hands suggest you're the biggest short. What you think is going long is actually shorting.
Ten years ago, our risk control team spent all day studying fraud cases in the community. One colleague complained to me: "Bad people always know better how to exploit system loopholes." I thought about it - bad people are indeed good at exploiting loopholes, but they can never see the bigger picture - this world is constantly patching holes and establishing better rules, driven by countless good people.
Those most successful investors are often mild-mannered people. They're not radical or arrogant, maintaining eternal reverence for the market. This reminds me of those truly good people - they're cautious, introspective, and never forget their moral bottom line. This isn't weakness, but wisdom.
If we understand "the gods are stricter with good people" as a kind of guidance or reminder, then it can be part of divine grace. Many belief systems have similar ideas that "the more spiritually strong or virtuous people are, the more obvious warnings or callings they'll receive when they make mistakes." This is helping good people cut their losses in time. As for the gods seeming more lenient with bad people, that also means bad people lose the opportunity to cut their losses in time.
"Never bet against America" - if we replace the object, it becomes "never short the power of human goodness." Because in the long run, those who short the world will ultimately be defeated by the world itself.
There are indeed many injustices in this world, just as there are always price fluctuations in the market. But the key isn't whether to arbitrage within it, but whether to consistently maintain a long position. Human civilization as a whole is a huge long position, and if one acknowledges innovation, one shouldn't deny this point.
