Recently, I started learning a new skill under the guidance of a mentor.
Although I completed my apprenticeship last month, learning never ends: I need to study geopolitics, macroeconomic analysis, monetary policy, technical analysis, Pine Script... Yes, I'm learning to trade.
I've always felt that when learning something new, besides its inherent value, it's best if it can reshape how you view the world. This is because such benefits have a more long-lasting impact, even if the thing itself might become outdated.
Trade the facts, not the price. — As my mentor says.
For instance, someone might sell Bitcoin at $100,000, or buy it at $100,000, not because the price is too high or too low, but because under the market's trading structure, such transactions have a higher probability of profit and a lower probability of loss.
In short, I believe this quote represents a decision-making approach.
As humans, when we oscillate between emotion and reason in decision-making, we should avoid emotions, intuition, and herd mentality that exhibit strong "human instinct" characteristics. We should consider the facts that have actually occurred, strip away emotional noise, to make decisions beneficial to ourselves.
Trading facts may contradict personal preferences
For example, before President Trump launched his cryptocurrency, a famous Chinese KOL launched one. Even though the KOL team's operation was weak, this event naturally sparked considerable discussion.
Since it has been launched, this is a fact.
If someone, out of dislike for this KOL, instinctively criticizes them actively, participating in one livestream after another, they are actually helping the KOL by making a market. Due to the nature of meme coins, their value comes not only from market cap but also from market volatility and speculative sentiment.
Thus, opponents unintentionally become market makers, as negative comments also drive market volatility, and whether the volatility is upward or downward doesn't matter at all.
Another example is Trump becoming President. People who dislike him have their reasons. But since most Americans chose him, that's a fact.
Since a stable future is already a luxury, consider how to discover and capture opportunities brought by volatility to help yourself or your family live better.
Trading facts is adapting to change
Reflecting on the "$100,000" example above, we find that facts imply change, referring to changing market structures, just as price implies constancy, referring to unchanging price.
Considering that people always try to pursue certainty, pursuing facts is pursuing uncertainty, which is counter-intuitive.
There's a saying that once you reach a certain age, you stop updating the songs you listen to, supporting the idea that keeping up with world changes becomes increasingly difficult with age — this is not just a physiological adaptation issue, but more of a mental and attitudinal challenge.
But this is a stereotype. Indeed, as people age, some tend to prefer stable, familiar cultural content due to habits and psychological needs, but it's more likely due to the scarcity of time and attention resources, rather than age itself.
For instance, if a person has never had the habit of making decisions based on facts. If they face significant life pressures, the cost of exploring the facts behind a new thing becomes very high, then they quickly become conservative, pedantic, and easily scammed. It's just that life pressures often increase with age.
Trading facts is antifragile
