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大家好，这是“日出山谷”第六十六期。
“日出山谷”是由我创作的Newsletter，内容主要分为认识自己、探索世界和了解未知。针对这三个方面，我会分享自己的所思所想，并推荐个人觉得不错的东西，可能是电影、书籍或文章。之所以聚焦这三个方面，是因为我认为好奇心是个体发展的重要推动力。
本期 best of article 更新，推荐一篇保罗·格雷厄姆的最新文章《Writes and Write-Nots》。
这篇文章认为，未来，人们会分为会写作的人和不会写作的人。而写作的基础是思考。当AI免除人们写作的痛苦时，也一并免除了人们的思考。
作为一个与文字打交道的人，深以为然。写作是痛苦的，尤其伟大的写作往往更甚。
以我写Newsletter为例，有时写不出来，有时写出来不满意。虽然，已经写了65期，但是真正满意的非常少。
所以，这个过程伴随着痛苦。
多数人本能地躲避痛苦。不论是锻炼身体还是历练头脑，人都会躲避痛苦，如沮丧、思想挣扎、尴尬、耻辱的痛苦。
而痛苦让我们清醒，帮助我们进步。
正像卡尔·荣格所说，“人需要困难，这对健康来说是必需的”。
Writes and Write-Nots 中文如下：
我通常不愿意预测技术问题，但我对这个预测相当有信心：几十年后，有写作能力的人，不会很多。
如果你成为一个写作者，你会发现的离奇现象之一就是有多少人有写作困难。就像医生会发现有多少人在焦虑他们长了一颗痣；擅长设置电脑的人会发现有多少人不会设置电脑；写作者会发现有多少人在写作上需要帮助。
如此多人有写作困难的原因，是写作在本质上是困难的。要写得好，你必须清晰思考，而清晰思考在本质上是困难的。
然而，写作渗透在诸多工作岗位中，工作越受人尊重，对写作的需求就越大。
两种强大的对立力量——无法逃避的写作需求和无法降低的写作困难——造成了巨大的压力。这就是为什么杰出教授会铤而走险选择抄袭。这些案例中，最让我震惊的是“抄袭金额”之微小。他们偷窃的东西通常是最平庸的套话——哪怕是半桶水的写作者都能毫不费力写出来的东西。也就是说，这些教授在写作上连半桶水都不到。
直到不久前，世界上还不存在能轻易释放这种写作压力的“泄压阀”。你可以花钱找写作枪手，像肯尼迪那样，或者直接抄袭，像马丁·路德·金那样，但如果你没法买也不敢偷，你就得亲自写。结果就是，几乎所有被期望写作的人，不得不学习如何写作。
现在不必了。AI已经炸开了旧世界，几乎所有的写作压力都被释放了。你可以让 AI 替你写作，不论是在学校还是在工作中。
结果就是，这个世界将会分裂为写作者和不写作者两个阶层。世界上仍然会有一些人拥有写作能力。有些人类就是喜欢写作本身。但是，优秀写作者和完全不会写作的人之间的中间地带将会消失：不再会有好的写作者，一般写作者和不会写作的人，只会有好的写作者，和不会写作的人。
这有什么问题吗？技术进步使某些技能过时，这些技能消失不是正常现象吗？现代社会没剩下几个铁匠了，但这并不是个问题啊。
错，这是个问题。原因在于我前面提到的：写作就是思考本身。事实上，有一种思考只能通过写作完成。对此，莱斯利·兰帕特的表述无比精准：如果你思考而不写作，你只是以为自己在思考。
因此，当人们分化写作者和不写作者两个阶层，这个极化的世界比听起来更危险。本质上，这是思考者和不思考者的阶层分化。我知道自己想活在哪个世界，我打赌你也知道。
这种情况并非第一次发生。在前工业化时代，大多数工作使人身体强壮。现在，如果你想强壮，你需要锻炼。世界上仍然会有强壮的人，但他们只可能是那些主动选择强壮的人。
写作的情况与此完全一致。世界上仍然会有聪明的人，但他们只可能是那些主动选择聪明的人。
英文原文如下：
I'm usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won't be many people who can write.
One of the strangest things you learn if you're a writer is how many people have trouble writing. Doctors know how many people have a mole they're worried about; people who are good at setting up computers know how many people aren't; writers know how many people need help writing.
The reason so many people have trouble writing is that it's fundamentally difficult. To write well you have to think clearly, and thinking clearly is hard.
And yet writing pervades many jobs, and the more prestigious the job, the more writing it tends to require.
These two powerful opposing forces, the pervasive expectation of writing and the irreducible difficulty of doing it, create enormous pressure. This is why eminent professors often turn out to have resorted to plagiarism. The most striking thing to me about these cases is the pettiness of the thefts. The stuff they steal is usually the most mundane boilerplate — the sort of thing that anyone who was even halfway decent at writing could turn out with no effort at all. Which means they're not even halfway decent at writing.
Till recently there was no convenient escape valve for the pressure created by these opposing forces. You could pay someone to write for you, like JFK, or plagiarize, like MLK, but if you couldn't buy or steal words, you had to write them yourself. And as a result nearly everyone who was expected to write had to learn how.
Not anymore. AI has blown this world open. Almost all pressure to write has dissipated. You can have AI do it for you, both in school and at work.
The result will be a world divided into writes and write-nots. There will still be some people who can write. Some of us like it. But the middle ground between those who are good at writing and those who can't write at all will disappear. Instead of good writers, ok writers, and people who can't write, there will just be good writers and people who can't write.
Is that so bad? Isn't it common for skills to disappear when technology makes them obsolete? There aren't many blacksmiths left, and it doesn't seem to be a problem.
Yes, it's bad. The reason is something I mentioned earlier: writing is thinking. In fact there's a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You can't make this point better than Leslie Lamport did:If you're thinking without writing, you only think you're thinking.
So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots. I know which half I want to be in, and I bet you do too.
This situation is not unprecedented. In preindustrial times most people's jobs made them strong. Now if you want to be strong, you work out. So there are still strong people, but only those who choose to be.
It will be the same with writing. There will still be smart people, but only those who choose to be.
本期完
如果你喜欢本期 Newsletter，欢迎转发和订阅。
如果你有任何建议或想法，欢迎与我交流，邮箱 [email protected]。
